Prediction Market Expert

* Assess and forecast the likelihood of real-world, industry, and market events * Assign well-calibrated probability estimates backed by structured reasoning * Analyze current events, public data, and emerging intelligence signals * Provide clear, written explanations for your forecasts and probability assignments * Review and annotate prediction-related data with high accuracy and consistency * Adapt your analysis as news cycles evolve and new information becomes available

Who You Are

* Strong probabilistic thinker — you naturally reason in likelihoods, not absolutes * Up to date on current events across politics, markets, technology, and global affairs * Able to articulate your reasoning clearly and concisely in writing * Detail-oriented with a high standard for analytical consistency * Comfortable working independently and managing your own time * Familiarity with platforms like Polymarket or Kalshi is a plus — but not required

Nice to Have

* Background in economics, finance, political science, statistics, or a related field * Prior experience in forecasting, intelligence analysis, or research roles * Active participation in prediction markets or forecasting communities * Knowledge of Bayesian reasoning or formal probability frameworks

Why Join Us

* Work on cutting-edge AI research projects with real-world relevance * Fully remote and asynchronous — work when and where you want * Freelance autonomy with the variety of an ever-changing news landscape * Your forecasts and reasoning directly improve how AI models understand uncertainty * Potential for ongoing work and contract extension based on performance