AlignerrDomain experts
Prediction Market Expert
up to $45/hr
About this role, in Alignerr's words
We're looking for sharp, analytically minded individuals who thrive on forecasting real-world outcomes. In this remote AI research role, you'll apply structured probabilistic thinking to evaluate major events — from geopolitical developments to financial and industry shifts — helping train the next generation of AI models to reason more accurately about the world.
What you'll do
- Assess and forecast the likelihood of real-world, industry, and market events
- Assign well-calibrated probability estimates backed by structured reasoning
- Analyze current events, public data, and emerging intelligence signals
Show all 6 itemsHide the other 3 in What you'll do
- Provide clear, written explanations for your forecasts and probability assignments
- Review and annotate prediction-related data with high accuracy and consistency
- Adapt your analysis as news cycles evolve and new information becomes available
Candidate background
Who You Are
- Strong probabilistic thinker — you naturally reason in likelihoods, not absolutes
- Up to date on current events across politics, markets, technology, and global affairs
- Able to articulate your reasoning clearly and concisely in writing
- Detail-oriented with a high standard for analytical consistency
- Comfortable working independently and managing your own time
- Familiarity with platforms like Polymarket or Kalshi is a plus — but not required
Nice to Have
Show all 4 itemsHide these 4 items in Nice to Have
- Background in economics, finance, political science, statistics, or a related field
- Prior experience in forecasting, intelligence analysis, or research roles
- Active participation in prediction markets or forecasting communities
- Knowledge of Bayesian reasoning or formal probability frameworks
Quoted from selected sections of Alignerr's posting. The full posting may state other conditions. Read the full posting
A closer look
More context, when you need it.
Full job descriptionThe original posting, in Alignerr's words
Posted by Alignerr, reproduced here so you can judge the role before clicking. Original posting ↗
Prediction Market Expert (AI Research)
About the Role
We're looking for sharp, analytically minded individuals who thrive on forecasting real-world outcomes. In this remote AI research role, you'll apply structured probabilistic thinking to evaluate major events — from geopolitical developments to financial and industry shifts — helping train the next generation of AI models to reason more accurately about the world.
If you follow prediction markets, track news closely, or simply love thinking in probabilities, this role was built for you.
- Type: Hourly Contract - Location: Remote - Commitment: Flexible hours, work on your own schedule
What You'll Do
* Assess and forecast the likelihood of real-world, industry, and market events * Assign well-calibrated probability estimates backed by structured reasoning * Analyze current events, public data, and emerging intelligence signals * Provide clear, written explanations for your forecasts and probability assignments * Review and annotate prediction-related data with high accuracy and consistency * Adapt your analysis as news cycles evolve and new information becomes available
Who You Are
* Strong probabilistic thinker — you naturally reason in likelihoods, not absolutes * Up to date on current events across politics, markets, technology, and global affairs * Able to articulate your reasoning clearly and concisely in writing * Detail-oriented with a high standard for analytical consistency * Comfortable working independently and managing your own time * Familiarity with platforms like Polymarket or Kalshi is a plus — but not required
Nice to Have
* Background in economics, finance, political science, statistics, or a related field * Prior experience in forecasting, intelligence analysis, or research roles * Active participation in prediction markets or forecasting communities * Knowledge of Bayesian reasoning or formal probability frameworks
Why Join Us
* Work on cutting-edge AI research projects with real-world relevance * Fully remote and asynchronous — work when and where you want * Freelance autonomy with the variety of an ever-changing news landscape * Your forecasts and reasoning directly improve how AI models understand uncertainty * Potential for ongoing work and contract extension based on performance
Working with AlignerrPay, getting started and work, from Alignerr's own pages
What the platform publishes in general. These are not extra terms confirmed for this particular role.
- Getting paid
- Billed weekly, Monday to Sunday, with approved work paid by the following Friday, according to Labelbox's help center. Payment goes through Stripe Connect or PayPal depending on your location, with one provider per country. intercom.help/labelbox/en/articles/13600616-alignerr-paym..., alignerr.com/process
- Before your first paid task
- Sign up, apply, verify your identity, set up billing and onboard. Some jobs add a Zara AI interview or domain assessments. alignerr.com/process
- How much work
- Time to your first project depends on demand and your skills, and there is no minimum number of hours. alignerr.com/faqs
- Contract
- Independent contractor, under terms with ALIGNERR LLC. alignerr.com/faqs, alignerr.com/privacy
Read on the pages linked above on 24 Sep 2026. Platforms change these terms, so check the linked page before you rely on one.
How does the pay compare?Across Domain experts roles, not this role alone
From our own daily reads of every open listing on the platforms we follow, not from Alignerr's posting. How we count.
Pay across the field: Domain experts
Across 692 roles in this field with a stated hourly rate in US dollars, on 18 platforms, the middle half pays $65 to $130 an hour at the top of the range, and the median is $100. This role's top rate, $45, is in the bottom quarter. Of the 259 distinct rates we count, 23 are lower and 230 are higher.
| Platform | Roles | Top of range, per hour |
|---|---|---|
| Alignerr (this platform) | 148 | $24 to $200 · median $80 |
| micro1 | 130 | $28 to $400 · median $110 |
| AfterQuery | 88 | $45 to $175 · median $100 |
| Handshake AI | 79 | $30 to $300 · median $85 |
| Mercor | 78 | $55 to $450 · median $120 |
Sources and listing historyWhere this information comes from
This listing's history
- First seen here on 27 Aug 2026, and still on Alignerr's list when we last read it on 13 Oct 2026.
- The listed pay has not changed since then.
- Posted by Alignerr
- First seen by AIPayList
- Last seen live
- Listing ID
- 781b4ff3-c0d0-4264-b724-25d1d1bcf6ad
Pay as the source states it: “$30-45/hr”.
Platforms sometimes change a rate after posting. Every listing here is re-read at least once a day and corrected when its source moves, so a difference you see on the platform is usually a change made since the last read. How freshness works.
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